Tag Archives: politics

By the Numbers: Why Trump Cannot Win. Part One 

By | |
Comments Off on By the Numbers: Why Trump Cannot Win. Part One 

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Part One. The Playing Field

It’s over soon not because of the criminal charges, the hideous behavior, the fascism or the increasingly lunatic speeches. It’s over because of the numbers he doesn’t understand.

Four years ago I gave to my local Democratic Club a talk titled, “Why Donald Trump Will Not Win the 2020 Election.” Last month I reprised the talk, but this time it was titled, “Why Donald Trump Cannot Win the 2024 Election.” This conclusion is based not on wishful thinking or partisan ardor, but on years of experience as a political operative and consultant.

There is a great deal of misinformation, disinformation and just plain nonsense swirling around the subject of politics and elections. We must begin by clarifying where we are. 

Contrary to conventional wisdom and the received wisdom of the media chattering class, we are not a nation bitterly divided, 50-50, between Democrats and Republicans. I first realized the depth and breadth of this misperception when, some years ago, I heard Bill Maher say, “You can hate Trump, but you can’t hate his supporters, they’re half the country.” Since then I have heard him and many other commentators — and many politicians — either repeat the thought out loud or assume it in their calculations. Just the the day Chris Mathews, a favorite TV anchor, said offhandedly — the way you say the glaringly obvious — that Donald Trump “has a 50-50 chance of being the next president.”   Continue reading →

Mid-Term Message: Abandon Hope

By | |
13 Comments

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Okay, we won. Now would everybody please go home and leave us alone. We’ll let you know if we need you again. (Photo by Jayu/Flickr)

Okay, we won. Now would everybody please go home and leave us alone. We’ll let you know if we need you again. (Photo by Jayu/Flickr)

Bull beat brains just about everywhere in America on election day last Tuesday, (with an exception or two), and anyone who still harbors the hope that the American Dream is alive, that the future will be better than the past, simply was not paying attention. People who profess not to believe in climate change have been given power over our national response to this rising threat to our continued existence; people who owe their souls to industrialists have been given responsibility for protecting ordinary citizens from the depredations of industry. We the passengers of the Titanic just elected a crew that doesn’t believe in icebergs. Continue reading →

The Empty American Street

By | |
4 Comments

The Arab Street (this one happens to be in Edinburgh, Scotland) is thriving. The American Street, a right-of-way for righting wrongs and warning of peril? Not so much. (Photo by baaker2009/Flickr)

The Arab Street — a slangy term for popular opinion and activism in that part of the world — is brimming with energy and resolve, it is, as they say, kicking ass and taking names in this amazing Arab spring. The American Street is empty, and it is still winter there. Continue reading →

Digression: A Modest Budget Proposal

By | |
2 Comments

If simplistic nostrums can save our government, why not the American family too?

From the new christian scientists now ascendant in the politics of America (well, they have been ascendant most of the time since 1980, but are currently enjoying a new iteration as tea partiers) comes a new theory of government. Just as the Bible is literally true in every respect, and humans co-existed with dinosaurs, and there are no such things as evolution, or human-caused climate change, or an end to oil, now comes another self-evident principle to guide our nation. (Self-evident because outside the statement itself, there is no existing evidence or even indication of its truth.) Continue reading →

A Tale of Two Meetings

By | |
Comments Off on A Tale of Two Meetings
US Capitol dome

As night gathers in Washngton, the Capitol dome shines a beacon of total ignorance over the nation. (Photo by David Iliff/wikimedia)

In the past week, two organizations convened in Washington DC to discuss their view of the world. One, comprising some of the world’s most knowledgeable scientists, was the American Association for the Advancement of Science, holding its annual meeting. The other, made up of some of the world’s most powerful politicians, was the US Congress, assembled. They seemed to be discussing two widely separated, and wildly different, planets. Continue reading →

Reflection: Word Pollution Rots Brains

By | |
Comments Off on Reflection: Word Pollution Rots Brains

A word cloud (the more often used, the larger) generated from a speech by Governor Bobby Jindal in 2009. (Photo by Jason-Morrison/Flickr)

While the problems caused by industrial-scale pollution of air, water and land rise inexorably to nostril level, any and all efforts to deal with them are hampered by the deliberate release of toxic words into our language. Like poisons and endocrine-disruptors, toxic words cloud our intentions, weaken our will and muddle our efforts. If we can’t talk clearly about where we want to go and why, we can’t get there. Continue reading →

The People, Sir, are a Great Beast

By | |
1 Comment

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

The Prince and the Princess discover what royalty has oft learned before: if people are miserable enough, they will intrude on your life of privilege. (AP Photo/Matt Dunham)

Modern political leaders focussed on polling, partisan doctrine and the next election forget at their peril that there is an ancient and non-revokable contract between leaders and followers: give us followers good times and security and we will allow you leaders your power and wealth; fail to protect us from grievous harm and we will erase you. Retribution for mass suffering has fallen brutally on high priests, pharoahs, kings, czars and presidents throughout history. And the laws of history have in no way and in no place been revoked. (To listen to the audio version, click here:  0104 The People are a Beast) Continue reading →

Digression: How to Handle a Palin

By | |
6 Comments
Sarah Palin

When Sarah Palin speaks, you must not listen. It’s a celebrity trap. (Photo by sskennel/Flickr

There is one overwhelming worry — and one only — that is shared equally by today’s Democrats and Republicans: not war, not deficit spending, not climate change, but what to do about Sarah Palin. Here, as a post-partisan public service, is the answer.

Continue reading →

Nightfall in America

By | |
Comments Off on Nightfall in America
US Capitol dome

As night gathers in Washngton, the Capitol dome shines a beacon of total ignorance over the nation. (Photo by David Iliff/wikimedia)

The triumph of ignorance and greed in the November elections is about to complete the paralysis of the United States government that has been the clear objective of the right wing since 1980, and has been almost within its grasp since 2000. Virtually free at last from the constraints of objective journalism, effective opposition and a shared public sense of civic duty, the right wing no longer needs to be restrained, or rational, in completing the destruction of a once great nation. Continue reading →

Lakes Warming Toward Danger Point

By | |
Comments Off on Lakes Warming Toward Danger Point
Lake Tahoe

Lake Tahoe, on the border of California and Nevada, is North America's largest alpine lake. Like most other lakes in the world, it's warming up. (Photo by NASA)

The world’s major lakes have been warming at a “rapid” rate since 1985, according to a survey released this week by the National Aeronautics and Space Adminstration (NASA). Using data from infra-red sensors mounted on satellites, the study found average surface-temperature warming in large lakes around the world of up to one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade. Continue reading →