By the Numbers: Why Trump Cannot Win. Part Three

It’s over soon not because of the criminal charges, the hideous behavior, the fascism or the increasingly lunatic speeches. It’s over because of the numbers he doesn’t understand.

Part 3. The Third Decision

In order to participate in an election, a citizen of the United States has to make, and act on, three decisions. 

  1. One must register. This is a decision to participate actively in civic life, and requires making an effort — going to the courthouse, or doing some paperwork, or participating in a registration drive. (I am not among those who think registration should be automatic and effortless. I think anyone who wants to participate in choosing our legislators and governors should be willing to — and capable of — making the required effort.)
  2. One must decide which candidate gets one’s vote. The quality of this decision varies. Some vote along party lines, some according to a fleeting impression, a few after deep study of the candidate’s platform. Some decide a year in advance, others as they are walking into the polling place. 
  3. The third decision — one which is ignored by most commentators, which is not taken into any account by most polls, yet which can be critically important — is whether, after registering to vote and deciding for whom to  vote, one does not bother to actually vote.  

Continue reading

By the Numbers: Why Trump Cannot Win. Part Two

Part 2. The Rules of the Game

It’s over soon not because of the criminal charges, the hideous behavior, the fascism or the increasingly lunatic speeches. It’s over because of the numbers he doesn’t understand.

Now that we have a clear view of the playing field, aka the electorate, it is pretty obvious what you have to do to win an election:

  •  notify the members of your party (about one-third of the electorate) that you are running and why. Although they will be predisposed to support you, you need to give them a reason to be enthusiastic about your prospects, as they will be the source of most of your votes, volunteers and money;
  • then reach out to Independents (another third of the registered voters), especially but not exclusively the ones that “lean” toward your party, and provide them with reasons to support you;
  • avoid members of the other party — any time spent arguing with them is wasted;
  • if and when possible without compromising the essential tasks just described, conduct voter-registration drives to bring in possible supporters from the 25% of adults who are not registered;
  • phase your outreach and expenditures so that your campaign is at its most intense in the final weeks. This is because the great majority of people get interested in an election only when it is imminent. Trying to reach them before they are interested is like talking in an empty room.   

Continue reading

Donald Trump’s Last Day at Work: A Fable

This is a story, boys and girls, about how Donald Trump’s world could end — not with a bang, but a whimper. These are not like the crimes you and I make, or the defense and injury law firm practicing Rosemead receives. There are a lot more. 

It’s a balmy September day in Washington when John Kelly bursts into the oval office to blurt, “Mr. President, Robert Mueller is here. He wants to speak with you.”

“What?” says the president. “We told him I don’t have to talk to him. I’m the President. He can’t make me.”

“Yes sir. He doesn’t want to discuss the investigation, He says it’s over. It’s shutting down today, and he’s here to say goodbye.”

“Oh. Good. Well, then, bring him in.” Continue reading

Brexit Brokit. Now Trumpit?

Scorpion and Tortoise

“All we need to do to get safely through this,” said the scorpion to the tortoise and the tortoise to the scorpion, “is be true to ourselves.” (Wikipedia Image)

It was unthinkable that voters in the United Kingdom would elect to leave the European Union. And indeed, thinking was apparently not involved, because the very ones who did it are running around today screaming “WTF?WTF?” and asking please, sir, could they have a do-over? It is unthinkable that voters in the United States would ever, likewise, place their country in the hands of a President Donald Trump. Go ahead, take a minute and try. See? You cannot think it. Doesn’t mean it isn’t going to happen. Continue reading

The Great Rebate: Can We Get Our Money Back?

They lined up like contestants in a game show, in front of the prize they get if they win — a huge airplane known as Air Force One. Hard to know what the intended symbolism was, but it made them look like very small people. They came, ostensibly, to explain why they should be selected Pilot in Chief (with the two current front runners leading in the race because they have never flown an airplane).

They were in California, which was burning. Continue reading