Tag Archives: 2024 election

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It’s over soon not because of the criminal charges, the hideous behavior, the fascism or the increasingly lunatic speeches. It’s over because of the numbers he doesn’t understand.

Part 3. The Third Decision

In order to participate in an election, a citizen of the United States has to make, and act on, three decisions. 

1. One must register. This is a decision to participate actively in civic life, and requires making an effort — going to the courthouse, or doing some paperwork, or participating in a registration drive. (I am not among those who think registration should be automatic and effortless. I think anyone who wants to participate in choosing our legislators and governors should be willing to — and capable of — making the required effort.)
2. One must decide which candidate gets one’s vote. The quality of this decision varies. Some vote along party lines, some according to a fleeting impression, a few after deep study of the candidate’s platform. Some decide a year in advance, others as they are walking into the polling place. 
3. The third decision — one which is ignored by most commentators, which is not taken into any account by most polls, yet which can be critically important — is whether, after registering to vote and deciding for whom to  vote, one does not bother to actually vote.  

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Part 2. The Rules of the Game

It’s over soon not because of the criminal charges, the hideous behavior, the fascism or the increasingly lunatic speeches. It’s over because of the numbers he doesn’t understand.

Now that we have a clear view of the playing field, aka the electorate, it is pretty obvious what you have to do to win an election:

•  notify the members of your party (about one-third of the electorate) that you are running and why. Although they will be predisposed to support you, you need to give them a reason to be enthusiastic about your prospects, as they will be the source of most of your votes, volunteers and money;
• then reach out to Independents (another third of the registered voters), especially but not exclusively the ones that “lean” toward your party, and provide them with reasons to support you;
• avoid members of the other party — any time spent arguing with them is wasted;
• if and when possible without compromising the essential tasks just described, conduct voter-registration drives to bring in possible supporters from the 25% of adults who are not registered;
• phase your outreach and expenditures so that your campaign is at its most intense in the final weeks. This is because the great majority of people get interested in an election only when it is imminent. Trying to reach them before they are interested is like talking in an empty room.   

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