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[A beach house in Rodanthe, North Carolina succumbs to risings seas. Unthinkable?]
We are faced today with any number of situations that are at first glance incomprehensible, that are so far outside our experience and prior knowledge that they are, in a word, unthinkable. For example:
A recent study examined what would happen in three large Southern cities if a multi-day power blackout occurred during a multi-day heat wave. Such blackouts have doubled in number in the U.S. since 2015, while the number and severity of heat waves has been steadily increasing. If the concurrence occurred in Phoenix, according to the study, half the city’s population, nearly 800,000 people, would need emergency-room care for heat stroke and heat-related illness. Phoenix has 3,000 emergency-room beds. The study estimates that 12,800 residents of the city would die.
This would be a mass casualty event worse than the deadliest weather event in U.S. history, the Galveston Hurricane of 1900, in which about 8,000 people died.
12,000 dead in a single city from hot weather? Unthinkable. Continue reading →