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Once you accept that politics is a three way street, it gets easier.
Far too much time is being wasted, by people running for office, by pundits, by Facebook posters and especially by the Biden administration, trying to figure out how to change the minds of Trump supporters. I could make this the shortest essay on record by simply saying, “you can’t change what you don’t have,” and going home, but I have a more serious point.
These speakers, almost without exception, make their arguments as if there are only two kinds of voters in America — left-wing Democrats and right-wing Republicans. These groups hate each other and are almost everywhere almost the same size, so it follows that the way to win an election is to persuade some of “them” to vote with “us.” I have encountered a good many campaigns lately that regard that as their job. They lost. As will any campaign so organized.
Because here’s the reality I am familiar with: in every political jurisdiction — precinct, county, or state) I have ever analyzed for political purposes since I started doing it in 1965, the profile of registered voters has been, approximately, one-third Republican, one-third Democrat and one-third other (independent, third party, whatever).
I see by your eyebrows that you do not believe me. You can look it up on your Secretary of State’s website. Today in West Virginia the registered electorate is 36% Democrat, 37% GOP and 27% other. Look at any county, any state, in any modern time frame, and with a few exceptions you will find the same thing.
This data suggests a totally different approach to campaigns than the idea that there are only two kinds of voters. This data suggests that any candidate, of either party, at the outset stands a really good chance of getting the vote of his/her party, and a decent shot at the vote of the independent/uncommitted/can’t-win-by-themselves voters. It follows that the resources of the campaign, i.e. its time and money, must be allocated first to fully informing the party base about the campaign, and bonding with them; and then reaching out to the uncommitted, informing and bonding with them. And if there’s any money or time left at the end of the day, go out if you must and argue pointlessly with a member of the other party.
The next biggest time-waster in our politics right now, after mind-changing, is bipartisanship. First of all, bipartisanship is not a thing. It’s a chimera, a one-word oxymoron. The idea that any modern politicians value their constituents’ well-being above their own partisan victory in the next election is quite simply nonsense. Now this is not to say that one effective but underused way to win the next election is to be a good and sensitive legislator offering people tangible improvements in their lives. But in open cooperation with the other party? Never.
If you join a poker game with strangers in a rough saloon, you don’t endear yourself to your opponents by letting them peek at your cards; you enable your own impoverishment. Democrats, after walking away from innumerable card tables wearing only their underwear, are finally figuring this out.
To their credit, the Biden administration is paying lip service to bipartisanship in exactly the way adults talk about Santa Claus when there are young children present: as if the thing existed, but without expecting anything from it. And the Biden campaign did a pretty good job of keeping its focus on the party base and the big, uncommitted middle.
And if Democrats continue to keep in mind that politics is a three-way street, they will do okay in the midterms while the Republicans continue their self-immolation. But if they concentrate on mind-changing, they will be wasting all our time, which is in every possible way running out.
It probably bears pointing out that what you said about registration statistics only applies to states that require voters to register under one of those three categories. My home state of Wisconsin does not require this.
I recall reading somewhere that a lot of supposed independent voters do display a marked preference for one party or the other but will vote for the candidate of the other party when the candidate of their usually-preferred party is beyond the pale in some way. If this is to be believed, only about ten percent of regular voters might be actual swing-voters.
1. Whether or not the state collects the statistics, the makeup of the electorate is remarkably consistent across space and time. It’s not the statistics that matter, it’s the reality.
2. What you read somewhere is true: voters not committed to a party often habitually vote the same way until “the candidate of their preferred party is beyond the pale in some way.” That is the definition of a swing voter.
Good to hear your voice again Tom. I missed your audio for a while there.
Thanks for noticing. Entropy is a terrible thing….
“…bipartisanship…a one-word oxymoron.” – damned good writing!
Thank you, sir.
re: bipartisanship
There is plenty of bipartisanship when a 2 trillion dollar tax cut is proposed, or the military needs an extra 180 billion yearly to fight a half dozen wars that everyone is favor of, or when the President bombs someone.
Doesn’t matter who, either, it could be an enemy operative, it could be a US citizen, and there is near unanimous approval of the action from both sides of the aisle.
Granted, as you alluded, bipartisanship goes out the window if the Democrats want something. Doesn’t really matter what. One need only look at the recent stimulus bill. Every single Republican in the House and Senate voted against it, despite the fact that most of them voted for basically the same bill a few months prior, when they where in charge.
And then there is what I would call, Kabuki bipartisanship. Pelosi daily decrying everything Trump, and then passing all his legislation, is a classic example, but the best is the ACA, Obama care. A GOP bill if there ever was one, designed by the right-wing think tank the Heritage Foundation, 57% of it’s provisions written up by the Republican Party, and then they proceed to vote unanimously against it.
Why do we not have a third party in this country? Or multiple parties?
Bipartisanship.